In AP the contest is between Welfare Vs More Welfare plus development

Will the saying “A bird in hand is worth two in a bush” hold for the Andhra Pradesh elections held on May 13.

Will the voter continue to trust in the incumbent Chief Minister, Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSR CP) who has built his narrative on delivering the promised welfare schemes to the poor?

Will the people of AP prefer to embrace the ‘Higher welfare schemes with visionary development’ unveiled by the alliance of the TDP+JSP+BJP and led by N Chandrababu Naidu?

These questions engage the political pundits, people and pollsters as everyone waits for the results to be announced on June four. Both the warring factions are claiming convincing victory.

Vision Vs Delivery

The just concluded simultaneous elections to the Legislative Assembly (175 seats) and Lok Sabha (25 seats) of AP on May 13 has seen a bitter fight between the aging but maverick politician, N Chandrababu Naidu (74) and the young and authoritarian Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy (47). The battle lines were drawn mainly on “Welfarism + promised vision Vs Welfarism and its delivery” respectively.

With the poll percentage going up to 81.86% an increase of nearly 2% compared to 2019 (79.77%) the suspense over the final result has heightened. Both, YSRCP and the Alliance have claimed that it’s a positive vote for them. Interestingly, the final vote share in the 2019 elections was 49.95% to the YSRCP that translated to 151 seats and 39.17% to the TDP which won just 23 seats. The JSP managed 5.53% with a solitary win. The BJP and Cong (I) ended up with an insignificant 1.17% and 0.84% respectively.

The incumbent Chief Minister, Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, exhibited a celebratory mood while claiming a convincing victory with the IPAC team in a widely circulated video just before leaving for a family holiday to London. The alliance of TDP+JSP+BJP led by Chandrababu Naidu also harped on coming to power after handing out a drubbing to the ruling YSRCP.

In the May 13 polling, the total number of votes cast through EVMs was 3,33,40,560. The female voters at 1,69,08,684, outnumbered the male voters at 1,64,30,359. While the incumbent YSRCP asserted that the greater number of women casting votes is a positive sign for it, the Kutami led by the TDP claimed that the record polling clearly indicates an anti-incumbency sentiment.

Since the formation of the residuary State of AP in 2014, the TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu and YSRCP led by Jagan have governed the State for a term each. Therefore, for the electorate of AP, the 2024 elections is a clear case of knowing the administrative and governance capabilities of the main contestants.

Inheriting a State with a debt and no capital, Chandrababu Naidu ruled it on the plank of  building a new capital in Amaravati and a vision of making AP-The Sunrise State into one of the top 3 performers in India by 2029. He brought industries like South Korea’s Kia Motors, failed to attract big IT majors, created some infrastructure in Amaravati and several private universities. He compromised with the NDA government led by Narendra Modi on the issue of Special Status to accept a special package. The Polavaram national project, IIM, NIT and some national institutes etc. came in during his tenure.

However, the people of AP handed out a severe drubbing to Naidu at the hustings in 2019 rejecting his vision in a way and embracing the ‘Nava Ratnalu’ or Nine promises of welfare schemes encompassing education, health, housing, pensions, unemployment doles etc promised by Jagan Mohan Reddy.

Exactly five years later, the thrust of Jagan’s electioneering is fully focussed on ‘I have implemented all the promises made under Nava Ratnalu to you, please give me your vote again and I will do a lot more. In the same breath he points out how Naidu never implements his promises’. The target beneficiaries of his welfare schemes are the poor, DWCRA women, farmers, marginalised and the old.

According to his government data, a total of Rs 2.55 lakh crore was credited into the accounts of beneficiaries of as many as 29 Direct Benefit Schemes (DBT)  schemes between June 2019 to January 2024. In addition Rs 1.70 lakh crore has been spent on various non-DBT schemes, which include loans, scholarships, house sites, PDS rice, power subsidy and distribution of tabs to students. The State GDP at Rs 14.50 lakh crore against Telangana which was Rs 13.04 lakh cr. It also stood first in ease of doing business. The public debt was about Rs 6 lakh crore.

The total benefits accrued to various sections of people during the nearly five years add up to Rs. 4.25 lakh crore. In all about 1.35 crore of the total 1.65 crore families benefited from various State and Central government schemes. “In the last five years, our government has rolled out DBT welfare schemes worth ₹2.55 lakh crore and non-DBT welfare schemes worth ₹1.70 lakh crore,” Jagan had said at one of his “Siddham” (We are Ready)  election rallies.

On the lack of industries, investments and jobs for engineering graduates (AP churns out more than a lakh per year), Jagan harped on the growth centres around seaports, industrial clusters around a few cities, and many fishing harbours, which he claimed will make AP very prosperous and generate huge revenues.

The bottom lines of Jagan’s campaign are the delivery of welfare schemes and giving another chance and I will make it bigger and the State more prosperous. The opposition TDP will not continue the schemes and Naidu has a bad track record.

The TDP led opposition alliance was not found wanting in the contest. The manifesto released by them promised bigger and higher welfare schemes. Though it did not match the Nava Ratna (9 Jewels) of Jagan it came up with the “Super Six” schemes like the  Annadata (Rs 20,000 annually to farmers), Thalliki Vandanam (Rs 15,000 annually for every school-going child), and pensions of Rs 4,000 for everyone above 50 years.

In addition to the other schemes like Deepam (light) -3 free gas cylinders per annum per family) and Aadabidda Nidhi ( Rs 1,500 monthly to women above 18), the biggest attraction or differentiator that the Alliance offered was the promise of creating 20 lakh jobs or providing Rs 3,000 as Nirudyoga Bruthi (unemployment allowance).

The alliance is tom-tomming the ability of Naidu to attract investments, provide an efficient administration, create a welfare+development vision for the State as a winnable alternative to what it described as Jagan’s ‘authoritarian and failed rule’.

The million-dollar question on everyone’s lips is who has the voter in AP favoured?

Wait for the answer till June 4.